Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:36 UTC, versus prices October 31, 2026 at a 2% chance and December 31, 2026 at 23%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by 05:59 CET/CEST on the specified date. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" means a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers rather than as an enterprise or developer tool. The product must be newly introduced, and not a rebrand, update or iteration of any previously released device. Qualifying examples include an AI-powered wearable, a smart home assistant or an augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips and servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI. Note: the wording requires the product to be both announced and launched, so an unveiling without general availability would not qualify. If an announcement alone is meant to be sufficient, the phrasing should be adjusted.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
