Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:14 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
This prediction uses the all-items CPI-U series, published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It measures the change across the twelve months ending in October 2026, without seasonal adjustment. YES if the applicable BLS percentage is exactly 3.8%; any other value means NO. Use the published precision of one decimal place. The initial October release is scheduled for 08:30 ET on 10 Nov 2026. Settlement takes place when BLS first publishes the relevant figure; later revisions do not change that outcome. If that figure is absent on the scheduled day, wait until the publication time assigned to the next CPI report on the BLS calendar. If October data are still missing at that time, apply the same percentage test to the latest earlier month for which BLS data are available. The official BLS CPI news release supplies both the main figure and any earlier-month fallback. A core inflation reading does not count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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