Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 21:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 26% chance and No at 74%.
YES if Alvaro Arbeloa is the first English Premier League manager whose club officially announces his firing, dismissal or sacking during the 2026-27 season; otherwise NO. If several firings are announced on one calendar day, the earliest official announcement time counts. Resignation, mutual separation and leaving for another job are not firings. If another manager is the first to be fired, or no Premier League manager is fired by 30 May 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Official club announcements and Premier League communications come first; broad agreement among reliable reports may also decide the result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
