Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
YES if the Republican nominee finishes first with a lead of at least 45 but under 50 percentage points in the 2026 US House election for Texas's 19th congressional district, held on 3 November 2026; otherwise NO. The lead is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-placed candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest. Republican and Democrat mean the nominees of those two parties; if a nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement takes that place, and independent candidates stand for neither party. A lead sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If two or more candidates share the most votes, a tie between the two nominees is given to the nominee whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically, counted as a Democratic win or as a Republican win by under 15 points; a tie between one nominee and any other candidate is given to that nominee in the same way; a tie only among other candidates means NO. The certified official count decides; if a recount starts before certification, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is certified. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Certified results from the Texas Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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