Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 23% chance and No at 77%.
YES applies if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be Iran’s de facto leader at any point from the opening of this prediction through 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Removal from power, detention, loss of the position, or being prevented from exercising that leadership qualifies. An official announcement of resignation or removal qualifies regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. Rumor or a temporary absence without such a loss does not qualify. A broad agreement among reputable reports is the primary evidence; otherwise NO applies.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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