Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the “leader of Iran” by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Roles that could qualify for “leader of Iran” status include, but are not limited to, “head of state,” “prime minister,” or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying U.S. statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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