Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:09 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 39% chance and No at 61%.
YES if a Democratic candidate finishes first with a winning margin of at least 15 but less than 20 percentage points in the 2026 general election for the US House seat of California's 45th congressional district, scheduled for 3 November 2026; otherwise NO. The winning margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first-place and second-place finishers, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest. A margin exactly on the line between two ranges belongs to the higher range. Democrat and Republican mean any candidate of that party who appears on the general election ballot, including when both finalists belong to the same party. If two or more candidates tie for first place, only tied Democratic and Republican candidates are considered: the one whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically (or the only one) is treated as the winner with the smallest margin range listed for that party; if no Democratic or Republican candidate is among those tied, or the winner belongs to neither party, every answer is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been certified; if a recount begins before certification, the prediction stays open until the recount ends and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. The certified results published by the California Secretary of State are the primary basis for settlement; overwhelming agreement among credible news reports may be used if needed. At most one answer is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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