Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:27 UTC, versus prices August 31 at a <1% chance and December 31 at 4%.
This market resolves YES if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by 05:59 CET on 1 January 2027. Otherwise it resolves NO. A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital. A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market YES. The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital. Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market is official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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