Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if the first round of Bulgaria's 2026 presidential election, expected on 25 October 2026, ends in a first-place finish for Iliana Iotova by 40 points or more; any other result gives NO. The margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the shares of valid votes won by the first- and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. Iliana Iotova and Andrey Gyurov count as individual ballot candidates, not as party options; party affiliation and replacement nominees do not change the answer. A margin sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If first place is tied, the result is treated as the lowest band for one tied candidate: between Iotova and Gyurov, the one whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically; either of them goes ahead of any other tied candidate, and if only other candidates share first place, NO. The certified official count decides; a recount keeps the outcome open until certification. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission decide, with strongly matching reputable coverage as a fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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