Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES if Alirio García Flamenco wins El Salvador's presidential election, currently scheduled for 28 February 2027; otherwise NO. Someone who only serves as an interim or caretaker president does not count as the winner. If another candidate wins, NO. If no definitive result exists by 11:59 PM ET on 29 February 2028, NO. The winner is taken from consistent reports by reputable news outlets; where those leave doubt, the official result of El Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (tse.gob.sv) alone decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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