Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:48 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
This prediction concerns the election of Hidalgo's 30-seat Congress in Mexico, scheduled for 6 June 2027. YES applies if PVEM occupies the highest position after the following ranking. Seats are counted from the official final allocation: a district seat won through a coalition or common candidacy is credited to the party assigned the deputy under the registered alliance agreement, never to the alliance, and each proportional seat goes to the party receiving it. Later changes in party or parliamentary-group affiliation are ignored. Parties first rank by seats; a tie is broken by valid votes for each party list in the proportional-representation ballot, then by alphabetical order of these names: MC, Morena, PAN, PRI, PT, PVEM. If another or unlisted party ranks first, the result is NO. If results are not definitive by 31 March 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, the election outcome is Other and, in this binary listing, resolves to NO. Consistent reputable election reports may establish the ranking; when unclear, official results from Hidalgo and Mexican authorities, especially IEEH at ieehidalgo.org.mx, decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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