Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 17% chance and No at 83%.
This prediction is about the share of Israel's national vote that the Shas list wins in the Knesset election, expected on 27 October 2026. The share is the number of valid votes for that list divided by all valid votes cast, and it counts even if the list falls short of the threshold for seats. If Shas runs on a joint list with other parties, all of that list's votes count; if it merges with another party before the vote, the votes of the merged party, or of any joint list it runs on, count. YES if the share is at least 8% but below 9%; otherwise NO. A share landing exactly on a band edge belongs to the higher band. If the result is still not definitively known by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the lowest band (below 6%) counts as the outcome. Results reported consistently by reputable news outlets decide; if there is any doubt, only the official results of Israel's Central Elections Committee (bechirot.gov.il) count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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