Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Google at a 75% chance, ahead of ByteDance at 14% and OpenAI at 5%.
On 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, the Text-to-Video leaderboard on arena.ai (arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video) is checked with the Models view selected. Models marked AutoEval at that moment are left out, even if they display a rank or score. The remaining models are ordered by the Rank column; models sharing a rank are ordered by which one appears higher on the leaderboard, and any tie still left is broken alphabetically by company name as written in our answer list (for example, Google ahead of SpaceXAI). YES goes to the listed company that owns the model in first place under this ordering; Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH covers models from Alibaba, including Alibaba-ATH. If the first-place model belongs to a company that is not on our list, every listed company is NO. If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the prediction stays open and is settled on the first check after it is back online; if it becomes permanently unavailable, every listed company is NO. At most one listed company is YES. Official information from arena.ai's Text-to-Video leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
