Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 16% chance and No at 84%.
YES if the Republican nominee finishes first in the 2026 US House election in Idaho's 1st congressional district (ID-01), expected on 3 November 2026, and wins by 40 to 45 points; if the Republican wins by any other margin, or the Democratic nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the two leading candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid ballots. A margin landing exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band, so each band runs from its lower edge up to just below its upper edge. The Republican means the Republican Party's nominee, including a replacement named before polling day; an independent never counts as the Republican. In a tie for first place, only the Republican's lowest band (under 10 points) can be YES: that happens when the Republican nominee ties with the Democratic nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. The vote count decides once it is official; if a recount starts before that, settlement waits until the recount is complete and the vote is official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The certified result of Idaho's state electoral authority decides, with overwhelming agreement across credible reports as backup.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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