Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Below 0.5% at a 99% chance, ahead of 0.5% to below 0.75% at 1% and 0.75% to below 1% at 1%.
Use Unity’s percentage of all valid votes cast nationally in the next Knesset election, expected on 27 October 2026. Divide valid ballots for Unity’s list by all valid ballots. Count its votes even if it misses the threshold for parliamentary seats. A joint list containing Unity contributes its entire vote total; if Unity merges before the election, use all votes for the merged party or the joint list through which that party competes. Exactly one band receives YES and the others NO. A value at a boundary enters the higher band. If the result remains inconclusive at 11:59 PM ET on 31 October 2027, the below-0.5% band wins. Agreement among reliable reporting is used first; any ambiguity is settled exclusively by Israel’s Central Elections Committee official results.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
