Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is No prison time at a 55% chance, ahead of 60+ at 28% and <20 at 9%.
Nicolás Maduro Moros was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026, on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, alongside co-defendants in the case titled “United States of America v. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra.” This market resolves according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolás Maduro Moros in connection with this indictment by January 1, 2028, 5:59 AM CET. Resolution is based on the first sentence rendered in the case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, if there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing includes no jail or prison time, the market resolves to “No prison time.” If no sentencing occurs by January 1, 2028, 5:59 AM CET, it also resolves to “No prison time.” A sentence of life imprisonment without a specified number of years resolves to the highest range bracket. A sentence falling exactly on a boundary between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket. It does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent with or consecutive to any existing sentence. Resolution is based on the total prison term imposed at the first sentencing in this case. The primary resolution source is official information from the U.S. court system or other involved U.S. government sources. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @CNN
