Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 20% chance and No at 80%.
YES applies if the US federal government formally charges Cuba's president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, with a crime, or announces a criminal indictment against him, between 1 July 2026 and 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Only federal criminal action counts: civil cases, state or local actions, sanctions, political accusations, and reports that do not show a federal charge or indictment do not establish YES. NO applies if no such charge or indictment comes in that window. Official information from US government sources decides; broad agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
