Will Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by 31 Oct?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.

Category

geopolitics

Closes

2026-10-31 23:59 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:27 UTC

This market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine officially conclude a ceasefire agreement on or before November 1, 2026, 4:59 AM CET; otherwise it resolves No. Resolution relies on official information from Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Answer options

• Yes4%
• No96%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

Reported by @Reuters