Will M + KD be Sweden's next cabinet's best match by 31 Jul 2027?

As of 30 October 2026, 09:04 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.

Category

politics

Closes

2027-08-01 03:59 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-30 09:04 UTC

This prediction concerns Sweden's first government after the parliamentary election of 13 Sep 2026. The deadline is 31 Jul 2027 at 23:59 in US Eastern Time (EDT, UTC-4). YES requires M + KD to win the comparison described below; every other result is NO. The cabinet must have taken office following the Riksdag's prime-minister vote. Count only these parties: S (Social Democrats), M (Moderates), SD (Sweden Democrats), V (Left), C (Centre), KD (Christian Democrats), MP (Greens), and L (Liberals). Each needs a cabinet minister to count. Parliamentary backing, confidence arrangements or supply agreements without a minister do not qualify. Ignore all other parties. Compare the cabinet with these options: S + MP + C; S + MP + C + V; S + MP; S + MP + V; S + C; S; S + C + V; S + V; M + KD + L; M + KD + L + SD; M + KD + L + C; S + MP + C + L; S + MP + L; S + M; S + C + L; S + MP + C + KD; M + KD + SD; M + KD; M + SD; M. An option is eligible only when all its parties hold cabinet posts. Among eligible options, select the one containing the largest number of cabinet parties. Additional cabinet parties do not invalidate an option. If options tie on that count, select the one with the highest combined seat total in the newly elected Riksdag; a further tie goes to the highest combined valid-vote total at that election. A one-party cabinet is assigned its corresponding single-party option, if listed. M + KD earns YES only if it wins that selection. A missing M or KD minister, a better-matching option, or a rival winning a tie-break means NO. No eligible option means Other and therefore NO here. If formation remains unconfirmed at the deadline, including after a delay, the result is also Other and this prediction settles NO. Use agreement among reputable news reports first. Where the reporting leaves the outcome unclear, use official information issued by Sweden's Government and the Riksdag. No additional tie-break or extension beyond the stated deadline is introduced.

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