Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump’s March 25, 2019 recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statements of intent or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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