Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 9,600,000 to 10,000,000 at a 27% chance, ahead of 10,000,000 to 10,400,000 at 23% and 9,200,000 to 9,600,000 at 18%.
YES goes to the range containing the overall count of valid votes in the US Senate general election in Texas scheduled for 3 November 2026, the 2026 midterm contest for a US Senator from Texas. Elections to the Texas State Senate, the upper chamber of the state legislature, and the 2026 party primaries and primary runoffs for the US Senate seat do not count. Every vote certified for a candidate or for a non-candidate option in that contest is included; blank and invalidated votes are not. If the contest uses ranked or preferential voting, only the first-round total is used. A total landing exactly on the line between two ranges belongs to the higher range. If the result is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, YES goes to the lowest range, "Fewer than 8,000,000". Exactly one range is YES and all others are NO. The official results published by the Texas state election authority that certifies the contest decide; broad agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
