Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 21:36 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
This prediction uses the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard. Check it on 30 November 2026 at 12:00 PM ET in the Models view (filtered for Models), with style control switched off (Adjustments: None). Consider only models whose companies are primarily Chinese: the company must be headquartered in China and mainly owned by, or operating within, China’s technology ecosystem. Named qualifying examples include Alibaba and Moonshot; they also include Baidu, Z.ai and Xiaomi. Further examples are DeepSeek, ByteDance and MiniMax, with Meituan, Tencent and StepFun also qualifying; other companies may qualify under the same test. Ignore any model marked AutoEval at that check, even if it has a rank or score. Rank the remaining models by the displayed Rank value. Break equal ranks by Arena score, using the unrounded value shown in the supporting data, then by alphabetical order of company names. YES if the highest-ranked remaining model is owned by StepFun. NO if another company is highest or if no qualifying model remains. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the scheduled check, use the first successful check after it returns; if it will never return, resolve NO. The arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard is the deciding source, and its official data at the applicable check controls.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
