Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 0-5% at a 27% chance, ahead of Democrat Wins at 27% and Republican 5-10% at 21%.
This prediction is about the result of the election for Governor of Vermont on 3 November 2026 (all dates in ET). The winning margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second; each share is that candidate's number of valid votes divided by the total of all valid votes cast in the race, so blank and invalid ballots are not counted. The Republican options stand for the Republican Party's nominee and the 'Democrat Wins' option for the Democratic Party's nominee; an independent candidate represents neither party, and if a party replaces its named nominee before election day, the replacement is used. A Republican range is YES when the Republican nominee finishes first and the margin falls inside that range; a margin exactly on the border between two ranges goes to the higher range. 'Democrat Wins' is YES when the Democratic nominee finishes first, whatever the margin. If the most votes are tied: between the two nominees, the lowest range of the nominee whose ballot surname comes first in alphabetical order is YES (for the Democratic nominee that is 'Democrat Wins'); between one nominee and any other candidate, that nominee's lowest range is YES; between candidates who are neither nominee, every option is NO. If anyone other than the two nominees finishes first, every option is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before then, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the result is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every option is NO. Official results published by the Vermont election authority responsible for certifying the result decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used. At most one option can be YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
