Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic candidate by 35% to 40% at a 33% chance, ahead of Democratic candidate by 30% to 35% at 27% and Democratic candidate by 25% to 30% at 19%.
Settled by the general election of 3 November 2026 for the US House of Representatives seat of Maryland's 3rd congressional district (MD-03), not the state legislative district with the same number. The margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. If the Democratic nominee finishes first, YES is the Democratic answer whose range contains the margin; if the Republican nominee finishes first, YES is "Republican candidate wins". All other answers are NO. A margin exactly on the line between two ranges counts for the higher range. "Democratic" and "Republican" mean the candidates nominated by those parties; if a nominee is replaced by the party before election day, the replacement takes over the same answers, and an independent stands for neither party. If a candidate who is neither of the two nominees finishes first, every listed answer is NO. A tie for first place between the two nominees goes to the lowest range of the nominee whose surname as listed on the ballot comes first alphabetically (the lowest Democratic range is "Democratic candidate by 0% to 5%", the Republican answer is "Republican candidate wins"); a tie between one nominee and another candidate goes to that nominee's lowest range; a tie between other candidates only means every listed answer is NO. Settlement uses the official vote count once it has been certified; if a recount begins before certification, settlement waits until the recount is finished and the result is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. Official results certified by the Maryland State Board of Elections decide; overwhelming agreement in reliable election reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
