Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 22:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 20% chance and No at 80%.
YES applies once every required party, including all EU member states, has signed and ratified an accession treaty or equivalent binding instrument admitting Canada to full EU membership by 31 December 2028 at 11:59 PM ET. The date those requirements are completed determines admission. Policy opt-outs, derogations and transition periods are allowed. Associate or affiliate status, the proposed Alliance for the Future, candidacy, talks, EEA participation, a customs union, and trade, security or cooperation arrangements fall short. Subsequent suspension, withdrawal or another status change does not reverse YES after qualifying ratification. Without that ratification by the deadline, NO applies. Official records from the European Commission, European Council and Canadian government take priority; broadly consistent reputable reporting is also usable.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
