Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 16:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
Resolves YES if, from the opening of this question at 20:54:41 UTC on 9 October 2026 (4:54:41 PM ET) through 11:59 PM ET on 31 October 2026, Ledger puts out an official announcement of a plan under which users who bought Ledger hardware wallets through the third-party reseller CryptoBilis (spelled CryptoBillis in some reports) and lost funds in this incident are to be compensated, reimbursed or otherwise made whole. Any qualifying form of compensation counts, such as direct repayment, a fund set up for the victims, or a formal deal with an insurer or with the reseller to cover what users lost. Expressions of regret, and help offered only with the investigation or with recovering assets, do not qualify unless a concrete compensation commitment comes with them; replacement devices, discounts and similar goodwill gestures that leave the lost funds uncovered do not qualify either. A Ledger announcement on Ledger.com or through its own channels decides; credible reports that agree overwhelmingly may also settle it. Otherwise NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
