Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
This prediction covers the 2026 Minnesota general election, held on 3 Nov 2026, local time. It compares Peggy Flanagan's vote share in the U.S. Senate race with Amy Klobuchar's vote share in the governor race, measured in percentage points. YES if Flanagan runs ahead of Klobuchar. Anything else is NO. Each vote share is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes in that race, write-ins included, taken from certified totals without rounding. In a runoff or ranked-choice race, the most recent reported round that still lists the named person with a rival counts. A gap falling exactly between two brackets goes to the higher range bracket. A candidate who withdraws or is removed from the ballot with no recorded votes counts as 0%, as does any share not determined by 31 Mar 2027. The Minnesota Secretary of State's certified results decide; consistent reports from reputable news outlets may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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