Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 3% chance and Democratic Party at 96%.
The YES answer is the party credited with winning the MO-05 seat in the 2026 U.S. House election, scheduled for 3 November. Determine affiliation when every 2026 House contest has been conclusively called, using the winner’s ballot affiliation or otherwise identifiable party connection. A winner not listed on the ballot as a Democrat or Republican is assigned using their most recent stated caucus intention at that same point. Agreement among reliable news reports determines the result; if ambiguity remains, only the official U.S. result reported by the Federal Election Commission controls. The other answer is NO. There is no fixed ET deadline for the election calls.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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