Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 13% chance and No at 87%.
YES if, by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the US and Afghanistan, with the Taliban authorities counting as Afghanistan, both sign a written diplomatic agreement with each other that expressly deals with Afghan minerals, or formally adopt one as described below. Any such agreement counts, whatever its scope, substance, length, legal form or importance, including narrow, temporary, technical, single-issue, procedural, partial or non-binding ones. Qualifying topics include mineral partnerships, rights to future mineral resources, mining rights and any other cooperation on Afghan minerals. Both countries must sign the instrument, either the same document or separate signed documents that each directly accept the same underlying instrument; small differences in format, wording or translation between the signed versions do not matter, and handwritten as well as officially issued electronic signatures count. Unless the exception in the next sentence applies, a statement accepting or supporting the text without a signature is not enough. The only exception is an instrument that both countries treat as not needing a signature: it qualifies if both formally adopt it, shown for example by an official joint statement that both have adopted, approved, executed, concluded or finalised it; by official confirmation from both that the same published text has been agreed or adopted by both; by an official resolution, ministerial or executive decision or similar act through which a country adopts it; or by official diplomatic notes or letters exchanged between the two that accept the same instrument. The officially released text is the main basis for deciding whether an instrument qualifies. If an instrument is signed or adopted by the deadline but the full text is still unpublished 28 days after adoption, definitive official statements from the two governments, or agreement among major news agencies, may be used instead. If the text is still unreleased when the deadline passes and it is genuinely unclear whether the instrument qualifies, settlement may wait until 28 days after its adoption so the text can be released. Once both countries have signed or formally adopted a qualifying instrument, YES stands even if it never enters into force, is not ratified or approved by a legislature, or is later repudiated, left unimplemented or withdrawn from by either country. Otherwise NO. Official statements of the two governments and the published text of the agreement decide; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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