Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:13 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This prediction covers the election of all 60 members of El Salvador's Legislative Assembly, scheduled for 28 February 2027. Parties are ranked by the seats credited to them in that election; equal seat totals are split by total valid votes, higher first, and then by alphabetical order of the party names listed on versus. Seats credited to a different party or electoral label do not count, whatever cooperation, endorsements, coalition deals or later group arrangements exist. When candidates of two or more parties stand on one shared list, each seat that list wins goes to the party of the candidate elected. YES if Solidary Force (FS) is ranked first after these steps. NO if any other party, listed on versus or not, is ranked first. NO as well if the results are not definitely known by 11:59 PM ET on 29 February 2028. The outcome follows matching reports from reputable news outlets; where these are unclear, the results of El Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE, tse.gob.sv) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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