Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:21 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
At 12:00 PM ET on 31 October 2026, check arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video with the Models filter. Rank eligible models by the Rank column and find the owner of the leading model. YES if that owner is Google; otherwise NO. Exclude entries tagged AutoEval even when they have a score or rank; include entries tagged Preliminary. Equal ranks are ordered by their vertical position in the table, with the higher entry first. If still tied, the company whose name comes first alphabetically ranks ahead. The arena.ai table is the deciding record, with no separate ranking provider substituted. A temporary outage delays the check until the table returns; use the first observation then. If the table becomes permanently unavailable, or the leading model belongs to any other company, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
