Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
This prediction covers Michigan's voting seats in the House of Representatives of the 120th US Congress, filled at the 2026 United States midterm elections on 3 Nov 2026. YES if the Democratic Party wins fewer than 5 of those seats, that is 4 or fewer. NO if it wins 5 or more. Every US House contest in Michigan that forms part of the 2026 midterms and elects a voting member for the 120th Congress counts, and a runoff decides the seat it belongs to. Special elections that fill a vacancy for the rest of an unexpired term do not count, even when they are held at the same time. Each seat goes to the party under whose label the winner was elected; a party switch or a departure by the member-elect after election day changes nothing. An independent counts for a party if, before election day, they formally caucus with that party or announce that they intend to. If the caucus intentions of elected independents are still unclear on election day, settlement waits until those members announce them or until 23:59 ET on 4 Jan 2027, whichever is earlier; an independent with no announcement by then counts for no party. Official information from Michigan's election authorities and the US Congress decides; consistent reports from reputable news outlets may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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