Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:45 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 13% chance and No at 87%.
Resolves YES if the US Supreme Court grants review by writ of certiorari in a case about artificial intelligence and American copyright law, and the granting order carries a date of 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise NO. A case counts when at least one claim or defence, as set out in the petition seeking review or in the lower-court decision under examination, turns on any of the following: whether feeding copyrighted works into the training, development or fine-tuning of an AI model amounts to infringement or to fair use; whether what an AI model puts out infringes copyright, or who answers for that; whether material made wholly or partly by an AI system can be copyrighted, or who may count as its author; or any further claim arising under US copyright law in Title 17, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act included, that grows out of how an AI model is trained or built, or out of what it produces. An AI model here is read widely: any system that learns from data, or that turns out content of its own, belongs to it, machine-learning and generative systems alike, among them systems for language, images, audio and video. It makes no difference whether the petition or the decision below actually calls the technology artificial intelligence. A grant that reaches only a remedial, jurisdictional or procedural question inside such a case still counts. A case in which an AI developer is merely a party, while no claim or defence touches the points above, does not count. Only an order that grants a petition for review counts, review taken before the appeals court has ruled included. An order that grants review, sets aside the judgment below and returns the case without any further look at it does not count; nor do refusals of review, an order asking the Solicitor General for the government's views, a petition held over for a later conference, or decisions on emergency applications and stays. The case need not already be before the Court on 18 September 2026, and a qualifying grant still counts if the case is afterwards dismissed, settled or otherwise leaves the docket. The grant has to appear on the Court's official orders list or docket with a date no later than 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It is the Court's own order date that counts, whatever day reporting confirms it, and the case need not be argued, calendared or decided by then. Decided primarily by official information from the US Supreme Court at supremecourt.gov, above all its orders lists and case dockets; broad agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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