Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if the total number of valid votes certified in Arizona's 2026 election for governor is at least 2,300,000 but fewer than 2,450,000; otherwise NO. All votes certified for candidates or for non-candidate choices on the ballot are counted, while blank and invalid ballots are left out; if a ranked-choice or preferential count is used, the first-round total applies. A total lying exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If the result is not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on 31 March 2027, the lowest band (fewer than 2,000,000 votes) is YES and every other band is NO. The certified result from Arizona's state election authority decides, with overwhelming agreement among reputable news reports as backup. Exactly one band is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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