Prediction
Answer Options
As of 6 October 2026, 01:14 UTC, versus prices Yes at a >99% chance and No at <1%.
This resolves Yes only if both of the following occur: (1) Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC mayoral election; and (2) the New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments of 0.0% for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. The policy counts as implemented only if a 0.0% adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date; an announced intention or a proposed order not yet effective does not qualify, and orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline do not qualify. If the freeze is enacted through another official mechanism - including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law - and goes into effect by the resolution date, it qualifies. Orders that apply to only one lease term (e.g. 0% on one-year but greater than 0% on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g. hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units do not qualify. Policies that include limited exceptions - such as carve-outs for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g. hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) - still qualify as long as a general policy of 0% rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide. If Mamdani is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have lost the 2025 NYC mayoral election, this immediately resolves No. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @WSJ
