Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 5% chance and Democratic Party at 95%.
YES goes to the listed party whose candidate wins the seat for New York's 22nd congressional district (NY-22) in the U.S. House of Representatives at the 2026 midterm election, held on Tuesday 3 November 2026 (US Eastern Time). There is no election-night cutoff: the result waits until the race has been clearly called, however long counting or any recount takes. The winner's party is fixed at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called, using the party shown on the ballot or another clearly identifiable affiliation. A winner who is on the ballot as neither a Democrat nor a Republican counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they would caucus with at that moment. A change of party affiliation after all 2026 House races are conclusively called does not alter the answer. If the winner cannot be counted for either listed party, both listed parties are NO; at most one listed party can be YES. Broad agreement among reliable election reporting decides; if that leaves the result ambiguous, the official results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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