Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first in the 2026 US House election in Massachusetts's 6th congressional district (MA-06), expected on 3 November 2026, and wins by 5 to 15 points; if the Democrat wins by any other margin, or the Republican nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the candidates who finish first and second, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. A margin landing exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band, so each band runs from its lower edge up to just below its upper edge. The Democrat means the official Democratic nominee, including a replacement chosen before election day; a candidate running as an independent never counts as the Democrat. In a tie for first place, only the Democrat's lowest band (under 5 points) can be YES: that happens when the Democratic nominee ties with the Republican nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. The count decides once it is official; if a recount begins before that, settlement waits until the recount ends and the total is official. If the result is still not definitive on 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Official results certified by the Massachusetts state election authority decide, with overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports as backup.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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