Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:56 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This prediction concerns the New South Wales state election scheduled for 27 March 2027, which chooses the members of the state parliament. YES applies only if Ryan Park is the first individual whom the New South Wales government formally appoints and swears in as Premier because of that election, with the appointment and swearing-in completed by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. An interim or caretaker head of government does not qualify. A later change in Premier during the term does not alter this result. NO applies if another person is the first qualifying Premier after the election. If no qualifying appointment and swearing-in is completed by the deadline, the result is Other. Official records from the Government of New South Wales decide; consistent reports from reputable news organisations may supplement them.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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