Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:17 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 13% chance and No at 87%.
YES if the total count of valid votes cast in Arkansas for United States Senator at the general election on 3 November 2026 is at least 825,000 but under 900,000; otherwise NO. This is the race for Arkansas's seat in the U.S. Senate in Washington, not the Arkansas State Senate. Count all votes certified for candidates and for any non-candidate ballot options; blank and invalidated votes are left out, and if a ranked-choice or preferential count is used, only the first-round total counts. A total that falls exactly on the border between two ranges belongs to the higher range, so each range includes its lower figure and excludes its upper figure. If the result is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the total is treated as under 600,000. The official results certified by the Arkansas state election authority decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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