Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 28% chance and No at 72%.
YES if Peltola finishes first with a lead of under 3 percentage points in the first-round count of the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska, expected on 3 November 2026; otherwise NO. The lead is the gap in percentage points between the shares of the first- and second-placed candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the first round. Sullivan and Peltola are the individual candidates on the general election ballot, not party options. A lead sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If two or more candidates share the most first-round votes, a tie between Sullivan and Peltola counts as a win by under 3 points for Peltola, whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically; a tie between one of them and any other candidate counts as a win by under 3 points for that named candidate; a tie only among other candidates means NO. The official count decides once it is final; if a recount starts before the count becomes official, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Official results certified by the Alaska Division of Elections decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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