Prediction
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES applies if a candidate wins Bulgaria's 2026 presidential election straight away in its first round of voting, scheduled for 25 October 2026, so that no second round is needed. Under Bulgarian election rules this requires both conditions at once: the candidate wins over half of all valid votes, and turnout is above half of all registered voters. If no candidate meets both conditions in the first round, NO applies, whoever later wins a second round. If the first-round result is not known by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, NO applies. Broad agreement among reliable election reports decides; if it is unclear, the official results of Bulgaria's Central Election Commission (CEC, cik.bg) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
