Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:14 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 92% chance and No at 8%.
YES if the Republican Party's nominee (currently Ashley Moody) wins Florida's 2026 special election for the U.S. Senate, scheduled for 3 November 2026 (Eastern Time), counting any run-off. A candidate stands for a party only as that party's official nominee; anyone running as an independent counts for neither party, whatever ties they may have to it. If the party swaps its nominee before election day, the replacement nominee takes that place. If anyone else wins, including the other major party's nominee or an independent, Green or Libertarian candidate, NO. The result is settled once AP, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate; if the three have not all done so, the official certified result decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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