Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 16:02 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 55% chance and No at 45%.
Resolves YES if, from 22:48:21 UTC (6:48:21 PM ET) on 9 October 2026 through 03:59 UTC on 1 November 2026 (11:59 PM ET on 31 October), diesel of Russian production is physically delivered to a US port or into the land territory of the country, for commercial or government use there. The delivery must either be described by broad agreement among reliable reports as made under the diesel agreement Donald Trump announced on 9 October 2026 (or an amended or successor deal between the two governments), or be authorized under OFAC General License 135, which covers such transactions through 12:01 a.m. EDT on 7 April 2027, or under an amended or successor authorization that permits importing Russian-origin diesel. A ship's own fuel supply, fuel kept under customs bond for re-export, and fuel that is only in transit through the United States to another country do not count. The outcome is decided by broad agreement among reliable reports. Otherwise NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
