Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES applies if Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan politician, is released from custody by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A release to house arrest still counts as a release. A release on parole, on bond or on any other condition under which he is no longer held in government custody also counts. Moving him to another place of custody, such as a different prison, a court or a hospital inside the correctional system, is not a release. Temporary trips out of detention while he remains under the control of the correctional authorities, for example to give evidence in court or before a legislature, are not a release either. NO applies otherwise. Official statements from government agencies and prison or corrections authorities decide; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
