Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 32% chance and No at 68%.
YES requires the first person qualifying as Donald Trump’s endorsed presidential candidate for 2028 to win that election. Otherwise choose NO. An endorsement must be public, clearly express exclusive support for one person’s presidential candidacy, and be widely described by reliable news outlets as his official endorsement. Support for the Republican nomination qualifies; support for a Democratic primary candidate counts only with support for that person in the general election. Praise alone, conditional support, equal support for several people, opposition without backing anyone, private remarks, obvious jokes or sarcasm, and remarks immediately disavowed as insincere are excluded. For a ticket endorsement, only its identifiable presidential candidate qualifies; unclear roles mean no qualifying endorsement. Concurrent endorsements of different people in one written communication or one speaking event do not select anyone: await the first later standalone endorsement. Social-media endorsements require verified accounts controlled by Trump; likes and reposts or shares alone are insufficient. If he formally files his own presidential candidacy before a qualifying endorsement, he selects himself; statements without filing do not suffice. Once selected, later withdrawal or changes of support do not replace the first person. If neither an endorsement nor his own filing qualifies by 6 November 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, choose NO. Establish endorsement evidence from Trump’s official communications and broad agreement among reliable reports. The election winner must be called by Associated Press, Fox News and NBC unanimously. If the three have not agreed by 20 January 2029, the person inaugurated determines the winner.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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