Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 72% chance and No at 28%.
YES applies if any Kimi model from Moonshot AI shows an accuracy of 45% or higher on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Only the value labelled “HLE Accuracy” on the official HLE leaderboard at agi.safe.ai counts, or a clearly equivalent measure if that page's layout or wording changes; Calibration Error and all other metrics are ignored. Scores reported by Moonshot itself or shown on other websites do not count, except under the fallback below. If agi.safe.ai is temporarily offline during the period, the prediction stays open until the data can be read there again. If it is still offline after 31 December 2026, or is confirmed to be gone for good, the prediction can be settled with official Humanity's Last Exam results from another site; if no such official alternative exists, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
