Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 99% chance and No at 1%.
YES if the adult passage annual count of Chinook at Bonneville Dam, as published by Columbia River DART (Columbia Basin Research, University of Washington) for the period 1 January 2026 through 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, is above 550,000. A count of exactly 550,000 or lower is NO. Jack Chinook are not counted. Only the figure for that period is used, exactly as published, with no expansion, interpolation or adjustment; counts for days after 31 October 2026 and annual or year-to-date summary totals are ignored. The figure is read on 3 November 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Should the count up to 31 October still be unpublished at that time, the deadline moves to 17 November 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and if it is still missing at that point, the data available then decides. Revisions published before the deadline that applies are included; later revisions are ignored. If DART goes offline and is not back by 17 November 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO, and no other data provider is used. Official data from Columbia River DART decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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