Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and 05:59 CET on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military or security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof), to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not qualify on their own. Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled — such as through arrests or the disruption of a planned operation — will only count towards a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report the event and explicitly characterise it as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests occurring without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
