Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is ND at a 90% chance, ahead of ELAS at 6% and PASOK-KINAL at 3%.
Greece is scheduled to hold its next election for the Hellenic Parliament before July 25, 2027. This market resolves to the political party that wins the largest number of seats in the next Greek parliamentary election. Other outcome: The market resolves to “Other” if voting does not take place or if the Greek government’s reported results remain unclear through December 31, 2027. Tiebreakers: If two or more parties win the same highest number of seats, the party receiving the greater number of valid votes ranks first. If the parties are also tied on valid votes, the market resolves to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically. Seat-count requirement: Resolution is determined solely by the number of seats won by the named party. Independent candidates and any parliamentary groups formed after the election are not considered. Coalitions involving one listed party: If a listed party contests the election in a coalition with one or more unlisted parties, that listed party’s market option represents the entire coalition and includes every seat won by the coalition. Coalitions involving multiple listed parties: If two or more listed parties contest the election together in a jointly listed coalition—whether or not additional unlisted parties also participate—the coalition is represented by the listed party that won the most seats in the previous election. All seats won by the coalition are counted under that party’s option. Coalition dissolution: If such a coalition dissolves, each listed party’s market option again represents that party individually. Resolution source: The market is determined from the election results as established by a consensus of credible reporting. If the outcome is ambiguous, only the official results reported by the Greek government are used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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