Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic Party by 75 to 80% at a 31% chance, ahead of Democratic Party by 65 to 70% at 26% and Democratic Party by 70 to 75% at 22%.
The winning bracket receives YES for the 2026 NY-10 House election. The margin is the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates; each percentage is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. Democratic and Republican nominees represent their respective party options, while independent candidates represent neither party. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the listed name is updated and the replacement nominee of that party is used. An exact boundary goes in the higher margin bracket. If candidates tie for the most valid votes, two listed candidates use the lowest bracket for the candidate whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically; a listed candidate tied with an unlisted candidate uses the lowest bracket for the listed candidate; two or more unlisted candidates produce Other. For a party-labelled option, use the listed candidate's ballot surname for this tie-break. Use the official vote count once it is official. If the result is still not definitive by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use Other. A recount begun before the count is official keeps the prediction open until the recount is complete and the vote is official. The primary evidence is the certifying state electoral authority's official result; overwhelming agreement across trustworthy news coverage may also determine the outcome. Other covers an unlisted winner; when Other applies, every listed party bracket is NO. The vote is expected on 3 November 2026.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
